Africa’s economic recovery is expected to lose momentum in 2026, with growth slowing to 4.2 percent as the war in the Middle East adds fresh pressure to economies already strained by high debt and tight financing conditions, finance ministers, central bank governors and the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.

The warning came in a joint statement issued after the African Consultative Group meeting in Washington, chaired by Gambian Finance Minister Seedy Keita and attended by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Officials said the discussions took place amid a worsening global backdrop, with the Middle East conflict weighing on prospects even if a recently announced ceasefire holds.

“Global growth is projected to slow modestly,” the statement said, forecasting expansion of 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027, while cautioning that a prolonged conflict or disruption to production and transport could further weaken activity.

For Africa, the outlook is more fragile due to the region’s exposure to external shocks.

“Despite the recent benefits of hard-won stabilisation gains after a strong 2025, growth momentum in Africa is expected to slow down in 2026, contrary to earlier projections,” the statement said.

Economic expansion across the continent is forecast to ease from 4.5 percent in 2025 to 4.2 percent in 2026. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected at 4.3 percent, while North Africa is expected to expand by 4.1 percent.

The slowdown reflects persistent structural constraints, including heavy debt service burdens and limited access to affordable financing, which continue to restrict governments’ ability to respond to shocks.

“High debt service burdens, limited access to affordable financing, and growing development needs continue to constrain policy space,” particularly in low-income and fragile states, the statement said.

The Middle East war adds further risks, including the potential return of inflation, food shortages and rising social tensions, it added.

In response, policymakers and the IMF outlined measures to stabilise economies in the near term while strengthening resilience over the medium term.

These include anchoring inflation expectations, delivering targeted and temporary support to vulnerable households, and maintaining fiscal policies that balance credibility with flexibility.

Oil-exporting countries were advised to save temporary windfalls and rebuild fiscal buffers, while oil importers should safeguard essential social and development spending alongside efforts to raise domestic revenue and improve spending efficiency.

Beyond immediate policy responses, officials emphasised the need for deeper structural reforms to sustain growth.

African economies were urged to diversify, strengthen regional integration, deepen domestic financial markets and invest in energy and digital infrastructure, including the safe use of artificial intelligence.

Debt sustainability remained a central concern, with the group highlighting ongoing efforts to strengthen the IMF-World Bank Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework.

“This work is even more critical in the current environment,” the statement said, noting that war-related shocks are intensifying fiscal and external vulnerabilities.

Proposed refinements, including updated measures of debt-carrying capacity, are expected to improve transparency and help countries better assess risks and make informed borrowing decisions.

Ministers and governors also called for improvements in IMF surveillance, urging more tailored policy advice and stronger analysis of global spillovers.

The IMF, for its part, reaffirmed its commitment to African countries, pledging continued support through financing, policy guidance and capacity development.

“The Fund will continue to work closely with African countries to support sound policies, mobilise financing, strengthen resilience, and advance the region’s development objectives,” the statement said.

Despite recent stabilisation gains, officials warned that Africa’s recovery remains vulnerable as global uncertainties and domestic constraints continue to test the region’s economic resilience.