The Founding President of the UP Tradition Institute, Dr. Razak Kojo Opoku, has dismissed claims that the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) defeat in the 2024 elections can be explained solely by the theories of Incumbency Advantage and Incumbency Disadvantage.

In a detailed analysis titled “Incumbency Advantage & Incumbency Disadvantage in Ghanaian Politics: Exposing the Lies”, Dr. Opoku argued that some commentators have been manipulating data to justify the NPP’s electoral performance, particularly in relation to Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s heavy loss to former President John Mahama.

Dr. Opoku explained that incumbency typically benefits first-term presidents due to access to resources, donor networks, and initial voter goodwill.

He cited Jerry John Rawlings (1996), John Agyekum Kufuor (2004), John Mahama (2012), and Nana Akufo-Addo (2020) as examples of leaders who successfully leveraged incumbency to secure re-election.

Conversely, he noted that incumbency disadvantage often works against ruling parties seeking to extend their mandate beyond eight years.

John Atta Mills (2000), Nana Akufo-Addo (2008), John Mahama (2016), and Dr. Bawumia (2024) all suffered electoral defeats under this dynamic.

However, Dr. Opoku emphasised that while Mills, Akufo-Addo, and Mahama lost narrowly, Dr. Bawumia’s 2024 defeat represented an unprecedented setback.

He lost by over 1.7 million votes, securing only 88 parliamentary seats compared to the NDC’s 183 seats, the widest margin in Ghana’s Fourth Republic.

“Losing an election with almost two million votes is a very serious historic crisis.

The NPP should not consider such performance as normal or whitewash the data with unintelligent analysis,” he stated.

Dr. Opoku also highlighted global cases that challenge the absolute application of incumbency theories.

He cited Nigeria’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu (2023) and Kenya’s William Ruto (2022) as examples where incumbency disadvantage failed to prevent ruling-party victories.

Conversely, Donald Trump’s 2020 defeat in the U.S. and George Weah’s 2023 loss in Liberia show that incumbency advantage does not always guarantee re-election.

He concluded that Ghana’s 2024 results cannot be simplistically explained by incumbency theories, urging analysts to ground their arguments in data and facts rather than partisan spin.