After a four-and-a-half-year military standoff along their disputed Himalayan border, ties between India and China witnessed a thaw in 2024 with both sides withdrawing troops from two flashpoints. But analysts say mistrust remains a key hurdle to restoration of friendly ties between the Asian giants.

Indian foreign minister, Subrahmanyan Jaishankar, told parliament this month that the pullback has set New Delhi-Beijing ties “in the direction of some improvement.” But he stressed the need to restore stability on the frontier. "We are clear that the maintenance of peace and tranquility in border areas is a pre-requisite for the development of our ties.”

While troops have stepped back from face-to-face confrontation along disputed stretches, tens of thousands of soldiers are still spending a fifth winter in the Himalayas while artillery and fighter jets remain deployed along the border.

“The mood on the border for four years has been one of preparing for war, therefore turning them into peacetime deployments is going to be an operational, mental, psychological and structural activity, which is, again, going to take a certain amount of time,” said Swaran Singh, professor at the School of International Studies at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Large stretches of the poorly defined 3,488-kilometer-long frontier between the two countries are disputed. Tensions had spiraled after a 2020 border skirmish that killed 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers.

A high-level diplomatic dialogue to discuss the boundary dispute resumed last week after five years. Following a meeting between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and Indian National Security Adviser Wang Yi in Beijing, both sides reaffirmed their commitment to seek solutions that were “fair, reasonable and acceptable to both sides,” according to a Chinese foreign ministry statement.

The two countries also decided to resume trips by Indian pilgrims to Tibet and restart border trade at a mountain pass.

The ground for the thaw was laid by a meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia in October.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Li Jian told reporters at a press briefing last week that Beijing is ready to work with India to enhance mutual trust and manage their differences.

Analysts in New Delhi say India will be cautious moving ahead. “Border-related issues is something that India wants to address first, and then expand into an overall larger normalization of relationship with China,” Singh said.

Economic cooperation, however, is expected to move faster. China wants to tap into India’s growing market while New Delhi needs more Chinese imports as it seeks to become a manufacturing hub. Although bilateral trade has flourished despite the border crisis, India had put restrictions on Chinese investments and clamped down on issuing visas in the aftermath of the 2020 clash.

“While no one should expect a dramatic shift in political ties, economic ties will perhaps evolve in a much more accelerated manner and perhaps India would be much more liberal in opening up its markets or opening up certain sectors,” according to Harsh Pant, vice president for studies at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.

Chinese foreign minister Wang asked his Indian counterpart to restore direct flights between the two countries that were suspended during the pandemic and facilitate visas for Chinese nationals at a meeting on the sidelines of the Group of 20 countries in Rio De Janeiro.

“China’s and India’s common interests far outweigh their differences. The two sides should see each other’s development as an opportunity,” Wang told Jaishankar.

Analysts say the thaw between India and China – Asia’s two biggest countries -- will not impact the trajectory of New Delhi’s ties with Washington, which have gathered momentum in recent years partly over mutual concerns about Beijing’s assertiveness. Besides its Himalayan border, New Delhi is also concerned about China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean – Beijing has built ports in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and is constructing one in Myanmar.

“Both India and the U.S. want a certain kind of Indo-Pacific, a certain kind of geography, strategic geography, which is free, balanced, open and fair, which is also inclusive and, in some ways, those ideas will continue to propel the relationship,” Pant said.

The countries are cooperating in areas ranging from defense to high technology. The U.S. is also India’s largest trading partner.

New Delhi’s ties with Washington have witnessed some stresses. India, for instance, did not join U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia and has continued to import large quantities of crude oil from Moscow.

Speaking recently at the launch of a foreign policy magazine, ‘India’s World,’ in New Delhi, Jaishankar said that ties between India and the U.S. will continue to deepen even if both sides do not see eye to eye on every issue.

“We have very honest conversations on where we agree and where we do not,” Jaishanker said.

Calling their relationship “important and large,” Jaishankar said, “we factor these conversations but keep advancing that [overall] relationship.”

Analysts say India will stay aligned with the United States and other Western countries in forums like the Quad.

“It is a win-win for both sides. China is a structural challenge for both India and the U.S. So irrespective of the fact whether there is a crisis or not, India and U.S. will continue to deepen their relationship,” said Sankalp Gurjar, assistant professor of geopolitics at the Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics.