Databank Research has projected a relatively stable outlook for the Ghanaian cedi in 2026, anticipating a year-end depreciation of 7.2% against the US dollar. The cedi is expected to close the year at around GH¢12.85 to the dollar, assuming no major systemic shocks disrupt the market.

The forecast accounts for expected demand pressures from bulk importers, energy-related payments, and Eurobond obligations. It is based on a conservative projection of monthly inflows of approximately GH¢750 million from GOLDBOD, alongside ongoing reforms in the small-scale mining sector.

Sustained gold-backed inflows are expected to bolster the Bank of Ghana’s ability to manage market expectations and smooth volatility in the foreign exchange market.

The outlook also factors in positive external sentiment, supported by continued programme support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

On the global front, the report highlights a gradual trend among some central banks to diversify reserves away from the US dollar and increase gold holdings, with China at the forefront of this shift amid uncertainty over US policy.

Databank Research notes that discussions are ongoing about reclassifying gold from a Tier 1 asset to High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) status, which would make it eligible as collateral in repo financing. If implemented, this could mark a structural evolution in the global financial system, enhancing gold’s monetary role, reducing reliance on the US dollar, and indirectly supporting cedi stability through stronger reserve accumulation.

While deliberations within the BRICS grouping remain cautious due to concerns over volatility, custody, and trust, this potential shift in gold’s status represents a low-probability structural scenario.

Excluding this scenario, Databank maintains a neutral-to-positive outlook for the cedi, citing tighter foreign exchange regulations and resilient reserves that are adequate to absorb moderate demand pressures.