Fitch Ratings suggests the Ghanaian government may extend temporary fuel subsidies beyond their May 16 expiration, provided the fiscal cost remains below 0.1% of GDP per month.

This projection coincides with Fitch upgrading Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B’ from ‘B-’ with a Positive Outlook.

The current intervention, introduced on April 16, 2026, involves the state absorbing GH¢2 per litre on diesel and GH¢0.36 per litre on petrol to mitigate the impact of rising global crude prices.

With Brent crude climbing to approximately $105 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, ex-pump prices are facing renewed upward pressure. Current market data shows diesel prices have already risen by nearly 6.77%, while LPG is expected to increase by up to 10.41%.

Economic and Inflation Outlook

Fitch anticipates that while higher oil prices may cause a gradual rise in inflation toward the end of the year, the annual average inflation should trend downward through 2026 and 2027.

The agency expects the Bank of Ghana to pause its monetary easing cycle—following a 1,400bp cut to 14%—to manage these inflationary risks.

Debt and Growth Projections

The report highlights several positive indicators for Ghana’s economy:

- Public Debt: Projected to decline to 46% of GDP by 2027, aided by fiscal consolidation and the appreciation of the cedi.

- GDP Growth: Forecasted to average 5% through 2027, driven by gold mining, improved consumer confidence, and lower borrowing costs.

- Current Account: Expected to maintain a strong surplus in 2026, following a record 8.2% of GDP surplus in 2025, supported by sustained high gold prices.