Friday, 15 May

IMF commends Ghana’s economic recovery, warns of risks as new reform programme nears agreement

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IMF

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team led by Ruben Atoyan visited Accra from April 29 to May 15, 2026, to conduct the 2026 Article IV consultation, the sixth and final review of Ghana's Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and to discuss a government request for a non-financing Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI).

The IMF concluded that Ghana's economic recovery programme has generated substantial stabilisation gains, highlighted by declining inflation, stronger fiscal performance, improved foreign reserves, and renewed confidence in the cedi. Growth in 2025 exceeded initial expectations due to broad-based economic activity and high gold export receipts.

Additionally, the primary surplus outperformed programme targets, the public debt ratio declined sharply, and most quantitative targets were met, despite delays in certain structural reforms.

While the IMF noted improving investor confidence—including the successful return of domestic treasury bond issuance earlier this year—it warned that external factors, such as the war in the Middle East, present risks to energy, food, and fertiliser prices.

The fund reported significant progress in debt restructuring, noting that bilateral debt-relief agreements have been reached with approximately half of Ghana's official creditors under the G20 Common Framework, with remaining negotiations still ongoing.

The IMF and Ghanaian authorities have reached a staff-level agreement on a new 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument to sustain reforms past the current bailout.

The new PCI will focus on growth-friendly fiscal adjustments, debt sustainability, transparency, governance, monetary and exchange-rate policies, financial sector stability, and economic diversification.

Recent improvements in the debt trajectory have created fiscal space for development, youth employment, and social protection.

Under this proposed arrangement, reducing the primary surplus target to 0.5 percent of GDP starting in 2027 would remain consistent with debt sustainability, provided public financial management reforms continue.

However, the IMF raised concerns regarding the Bank of Ghana's Domestic Gold Purchase Programme (DGPP). It stated that financial losses from the initiative emphasise the risks of quasi-fiscal activities that weaken the central bank's balance sheet.

The fund urged authorities to improve transparency, protect the central bank's balance sheet, and fully reflect future costs in the national budget.

Within the financial sector, the IMF acknowledged progress in bank recapitalization and the rollback of temporary regulatory relief measures.

Nevertheless, it warned that vulnerabilities persist among state-owned banks and specialized deposit-taking institutions, with high non-performing loans continuing to threaten credit growth.

The IMF also called for structural reforms in the energy and cocoa sectors. For the energy sector, priorities include reducing distribution and collection losses at the Electricity Company of Ghana, clearing legacy arrears, cutting generation costs, and finalising private sector participation in electricity distribution.

For the cocoa sector, the fund recommended more frequent farmgate price adjustments alongside measures to streamline costs and secure the long-term financial sustainability of COCOBOD.

Finally, the IMF urged the implementation of stronger anti-corruption measures, specifically the public disclosure of standardised asset declarations, to prevent a recurrence of fiscal imbalances, rising debt, and reform reversals.

Source: classfmonline.com